/etc/ufw/user.rules is world-readable, so this needed no privilege after
all. The default input policy is DROP and 8899 is not among the allowed
ports, so pebble's connection to the suite's listener is dropped. That
matches the live run, where twelve probes from a container completed no
handshake while the same openssl reached pebble's own TLS port.
The nc readings that pointed the other way — instant refusals on closed
ports, where a DROP should hang — are still unexplained, and are left on
the page as unexplained rather than quietly dropped, since they are what
sent an earlier pass through this page in the wrong direction.
Nobody has added the allow rule and re-run the suite, so the fix is
written down as a prediction. The cutover draft says the same: the test
failing here is not evidence that renewal works on the host.